MeritValue

Baird Medical Investment Holdings Ltd

BDMDdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

Baird Medical Investment Holdings Ltd earns about 17% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $4.25 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$35.1M1$31.5M2$37M2$22.5M2
Net income$12.8M3$10.5M4$12.5M4−$27.3M4
Operating cash flow$485,9685−$1.02M6−$6.31M6−$1.34M6
Capital expenditure$5.91M7$2.64M8$2.85M8$42,3158
Free cash flow (derived)−$5.42M5−$3.66M6−$9.17M6−$1.39M6
Total debt—$2.43M9$8.76M10$17.4M10
Cash & equivalents$1.71M11$1.51M11$2.97M12$178,32112
Diluted shares25.6M20.6M21.8M27.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$11.29
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$9.81
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.5
Debt you’d be carrying
$6.28

10 shares is a claim on $11.29 of net worth that earned you −$9.81 and generated −$0.5 of cash last year, against $6.28 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 4y
FY22 54%FY23 30%FY24 28%FY25 -42%

It earned an average 17% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 4y

Share count is up 9% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 618% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$4.25
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$11.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-001328 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-087081 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-001328 (ProfitLoss)
  4. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-087081 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-001328 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-087081 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-001328 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-087081 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-001328 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 20-F/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-087081 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-087081 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  12. 20-F/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-087081 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)