MeritValue

BLUE DOLPHIN ENERGY CO

BDCOdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

BLUE DOLPHIN ENERGY CO earns about 35% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$300.8M1$487.5M2$396M3$317.5M4$279.4M4
Net income−$12.8M5$32.9M6$31M7−$8.64M8−$5.6M8
Operating cash flow−$6.06M9$16.3M10$20M11−$15.7M12−$766,00012
Capital expenditure$013$102,00014$102,00015$46,00016$13,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$6.06M9$16.2M10$19.9M11−$15.7M12−$779,00012
Total debt$87.6M17$46.6M17———
Cash & equivalents$10.5M18$520,00019$18.7M20$81,00021$1.01M21
Diluted shares12.7M14.1M14.9M14.9M14.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$18.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.75
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.52
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $18.34 of net worth that earned you −$3.75 and generated −$0.52 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
35% avg · 5y
FY21 -10%FY22 69%FY23 160%FY24 -24%FY25 -21%

It earned an average 35% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+18% shares · 5y

Share count is up 18% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 47% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004195 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010434 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010478 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010712 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004195 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010434 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010478 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010712 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004195 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010434 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010478 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010712 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-22-004427 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010434 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010478 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010712 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004195 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004195 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010434 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010478 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010712 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)