MeritValue

BICYCLE THERAPEUTICS PLC

BCYCdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

BICYCLE THERAPEUTICS PLC earns about -33% on equity, but has diluted owners by 176% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$11.7M1$14.5M2$27M3$35.3M3$72.6M3
Net income−$66.8M4−$112.7M5−$180.7M6−$169M6−$219M6
Operating cash flow−$14.8M7−$86.1M8−$60.6M9−$164.7M9−$249.7M9
Capital expenditure$2.03M10$19M11$2.93M12$1.24M12$2.35M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$16.8M7−$105.1M8−$63.6M9−$166M9−$252M9
Total debt$59.7M13$60.6M14$61.4M15——
Cash & equivalents$438.7M16$339.2M17$526.4M18$879.5M18$628.1M18
Diluted shares25.1M29.7M35.6M58.2M69.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$88.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$31.61
Free cash flow it threw off
−$36.38
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $88.05 of net worth that earned you −$31.61 and generated −$36.38 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-33% avg · 5y
FY21 -19%FY22 -42%FY23 -49%FY24 -21%FY25 -36%

It earned an average -33% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+176% shares · 5y

Share count is up 176% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001324 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001438 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028971 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001324 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001438 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028971 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001324 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001438 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028971 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001324 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001438 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028971 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002238 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001324 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001438 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001324 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001438 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028971 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)