MeritValue

Bain Capital Specialty Finance, Inc.

BCSFdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Bain Capital Specialty Finance, Inc. earns about 10% on equity, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $19.09 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$119.8M1$105.5M2$123.4M3$119.4M3$98.8M3
Operating cash flow$265.6M4−$316.8M5$219.3M6−$27.1M6$29.5M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.41B7$1.39B8$1.26B9$1.39B10$1.47B10
Cash & equivalents$87.4M11$30.2M12$43M13$51.6M14$23.1M14
Diluted shares64.6M64.6M64.6M64.6M64.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$172.38
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.24
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$226.9

10 shares is a claim on $172.38 of net worth that earned you $15.24 last year, against $226.9 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
10% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 9%FY23 11%FY24 10%FY25 9%

It earned an average 10% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$19.09
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$119.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.36
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021337 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029152 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077703 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021337 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029152 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077703 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002409 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021337 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029152 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077703 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002409 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021337 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029152 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077703 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)