BRINKS CO
BCOdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'
BRINKS CO earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 15% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $39.56 and $309.95 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.2B1 | $4.54B2 | $4.87B3 | $5.01B3 | $5.26B3 |
| Net income | $105.2M4 | $170.6M5 | $87.7M6 | $162.9M6 | $199.7M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $478M7 | $479.9M7 | $702.4M8 | $426M8 | $639.5M8 |
| Capital expenditure | $167.9M9 | $182.6M10 | $202.7M11 | $222.5M11 | $203.1M11 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $310.1M7 | $297.3M7 | $499.7M8 | $203.5M8 | $436.4M8 |
| Total debt | $3.09B12 | $3.53B13 | $3.8B14 | $4.19B15 | $4.62B15 |
| Cash & equivalents | $710.3M16 | $972M17 | $1.18B18 | $1.4B19 | $1.73B19 |
| Diluted shares | 50.1M | 47.8M | 46.9M | 44.8M | 42.5M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $65.34 of net worth that earned you $46.99 and generated $102.68 of cash last year, against $1,086.71 of debt.
It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 15% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 49% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $39.56 and $309.95 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth13.6%
- fcfBase$436.4M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth13.6%
- fcfBase$436.4M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$162.9M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $77.78 |
| Base | 13.6% | $191.01 |
| Bull | 18.6% | $247.63 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 13.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000078890-24-000054 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000078890-25-000059 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000078890-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000078890-24-000054 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000078890-25-000059 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000078890-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000078890-23-000090 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000078890-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000078890-24-000054 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000078890-25-000059 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000078890-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000078890-23-000090 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000078890-24-000054 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000078890-25-000059 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000078890-26-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000078890-23-000090 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000078890-24-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000078890-25-000059 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000078890-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)