MeritValue

BCP Investment Corp

BCICdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

BCP Investment Corp earns about 2% on equity, but has diluted owners by 30% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $10.63 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$26M1−$21M2$11.4M3−$5.94M3$11.5M3
Operating cash flow$61.1M4−$33.1M5$120.9M6$56.6M6$66.7M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$347.2M7$373.3M8$322.4M9$265.1M10$306.9M10
Cash & equivalents$28.9M11$5.15M12$26.9M13$17.5M13$3.72M13
Diluted shares8.5M9.6M9.5M9.3M11.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$188.49
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.36
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$276.56

10 shares is a claim on $188.49 of net worth that earned you $10.36 last year, against $276.56 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
2% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 -9%FY23 5%FY24 -3%FY25 5%

It earned an average 2% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+30% shares · 5y

Share count is up 30% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 12% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$10.63
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$11.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$21
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030788 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038754 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-093918 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030788 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038754 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-093918 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007081 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030788 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038754 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-093918 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030788 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038754 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-093918 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)