MeritValue

BCB BANCORP INC

BCBPdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

BCB BANCORP INC earns about 446% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.78 and $45.08 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$112.6M1$131.4M2$188.4M3$194M3$173M3
Net income$34.2M4$45.6M5$29.5M6$18.6M6−$12.5M6
Operating cash flow$45.9M7$40.9M8$35.2M9$67.7M9$35.9M9
Capital expenditure$325,00010$518,00011$4.53M12$1.23M12$1.05M12
Free cash flow (derived)$45.6M7$40.4M8$30.6M9$66.5M9$34.9M9
Total debt—$60M13———
Cash & equivalents$411.6M14$229.4M15$279.5M15$317.3M15$276.6M15
Diluted shares17.2M17.3M16.9M17.0M17.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$177.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$7.29
Free cash flow it threw off
$20.29
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $177.05 of net worth that earned you −$7.29 and generated $20.29 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
446% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 48%FY23 259%FY24 1262%FY25 213%

It earned about 446% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.78 and $45.08 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$42.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$34.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$45.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$34.9M
Earnings Power Value
$17.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$29.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $45.08
The three cases
Bear0.0%$45.08
Base0.0%$45.08
Bull5.0%$52.1

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001228454-24-000003 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001228454-25-000003 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001228454-26-000004 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001228454-24-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001228454-25-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001228454-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001228454-24-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001228454-25-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001228454-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001228454-24-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001228454-25-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001228454-26-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001228454-24-000003 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001228454-25-000003 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001228454-26-000004 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)