MeritValue

BRUNSWICK CORP

BCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

BRUNSWICK CORP earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 16% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $55.88 and $85.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.85B1$6.81B2$6.4B3$5.24B3$5.36B3
Net income$593.3M4$677M5$420.4M6$130.1M6−$137.3M6
Operating cash flow$574M7$586.1M8$733.6M9$431.4M9$562.1M9
Capital expenditure$267.1M10$388.3M11$289.3M12$167.4M12$165.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$306.9M7$197.8M8$444.3M9$264M9$396.3M9
Total debt$3.7B13$5.15B14$5.35B15$5.07B16$4.81B16
Cash & equivalents$354.5M17$595.6M18$467.8M19$269M19$256.8M19
Diluted shares78.4M75.2M70.5M67.4M65.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$246.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$20.83
Free cash flow it threw off
$60.14
Debt you’d be carrying
$729.65

10 shares is a claim on $246.68 of net worth that earned you −$20.83 and generated $60.14 of cash last year, against $729.65 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 12%FY23 7%FY24 4%FY25 -0%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−16% shares · 5y

Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 30% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $55.88 and $85.46 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$85.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.9%
  • fcfBase$396.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$55.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.9%
  • fcfBase$396.3M
Earnings Power Value
$65.83
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$420.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.97%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $55.88
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.35
Base8.9%$55.88
Bull13.9%$84.17

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000014930-24-000054 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000014930-25-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000014930-26-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000014930-24-000054 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000014930-25-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000014930-26-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000014930-24-000054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000014930-25-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000014930-26-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000014930-24-000054 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000014930-25-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000014930-26-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000014930-23-000054 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000014930-24-000054 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000014930-25-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000014930-26-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000014930-24-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000014930-25-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000014930-26-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)