MeritValue

BEST BUY CO INC

BBYdata completeness 88%20 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

BEST BUY CO INC earns about 58% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 15% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $60.63 and $92.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$51.8B1$46.3B2$43.5B3$41.5B3$41.7B3
Net income$2.45B4$1.42B5$1.24B6$927M6$1.07B6
Operating cash flow$3.25B7$1.82B8$1.47B9$2.1B9$1.96B9
Capital expenditure$737M10$930M11$795M12$706M12$704M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.52B7$894M8$675M9$1.39B9$1.26B9
Total debt$2.46B13$2.35B14$2.33B15$2.31B15—
Cash & equivalents$2.94B16$1.87B17$1.45B18$1.58B18$1.74B18
Diluted shares249.3M225.7M218.5M216.6M212.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$139.75
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$50.4
Free cash flow it threw off
$59.31
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $139.75 of net worth that earned you $50.4 and generated $59.31 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
58% avg · 5y
FY22 97%FY23 44%FY24 33%FY25 27%FY26 90%

It earned about 58% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−15% shares · 5y

Share count is down 15% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $60.63 and $92.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$86.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.26B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$92.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.26B
Earnings Power Value
$60.63
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.24B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$39.81
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $92.94
The three cases
Bear0.0%$92.94
Base0.0%$92.94
Bull5.0%$113.45

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000764478-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000764478-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000764478-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000764478-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000764478-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000764478-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000764478-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000764478-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000764478-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000764478-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000764478-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000764478-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000764478-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000764478-24-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000764478-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000764478-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000764478-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000764478-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)