MeritValue

BUILD-A-BEAR WORKSHOP INC

BBWdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

BUILD-A-BEAR WORKSHOP INC earns about 58% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 19% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $41.02 and $182.14 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$411.5M1$467.9M2$486.1M3$496.4M3$529.8M3
Net income$47.3M4$48M5$52.8M6$51.8M6$52.2M6
Operating cash flow$28.1M7$47.3M8$64.3M9$47.1M9$65.1M9
Capital expenditure$8.13M10$13.6M11$18.3M12$19.3M12$25.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$19.9M7$33.6M8$46M9$27.8M9$39.5M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$32.8M13$42.2M14$44.3M15$27.8M16$26.8M16
Diluted shares16.1M15.2M14.5M13.6M13.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$118.49
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$39.9
Free cash flow it threw off
$30.2
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $118.49 of net worth that earned you $39.9 and generated $30.2 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
58% avg · 5y
FY22 78%FY23 63%FY24 62%FY25 47%FY26 41%

It earned about 58% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−19% shares · 5y

Share count is down 19% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $41.02 and $182.14 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$182.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$39.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$100.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$39.5M
Earnings Power Value
$41.02
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$51.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$32.62
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $100.5
The three cases
Bear0.0%$45.19
Base20.0%$100.5
Bull20.0%$100.5

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001437749-23-010169 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001437749-25-012234 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001437749-26-012501 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001437749-23-010169 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001437749-25-012234 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001437749-26-012501 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001437749-23-010169 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001437749-25-012234 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001437749-26-012501 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001437749-23-010169 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001437749-25-012234 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001437749-26-012501 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001437749-23-010169 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001437749-24-012440 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001437749-25-012234 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001437749-26-012501 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)