MeritValue

BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A.

BBVAdata completeness 75%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA, S.A. earns about 14% on equity, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $14.56 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$4.65B1$6.36B2$8.02B3$10.1B3$10.5B3
Operating cash flow−$1.24B4$23.7B5−$721M6−$18.2B6$15B6
Capital expenditure$396M7$1.81B8$1.13B9$1.2B9$827M9
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.64B4$21.9B5−$1.85B6−$19.4B6$14.1B6
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$67.8B10$79.8B11$75.4B11$51.1B11$58.8B11
Diluted shares6.67B6.03B5.84B5.76B5.71B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$108.25
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.41
Free cash flow it threw off
$24.77
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $108.25 of net worth that earned you $18.41 and generated $24.77 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
14% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 13%FY23 15%FY24 17%FY25 17%

It earned an average 14% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
€14.56
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings€8.02B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000842180-24-000007 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000842180-25-000010 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010001 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000842180-24-000007 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000842180-25-000010 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010001 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000842180-24-000007 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000842180-25-000010 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010001 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000842180-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010001 (CashAndCashEquivalents)