MeritValue

BARRETT BUSINESS SERVICES INC

BBSIdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

BARRETT BUSINESS SERVICES INC earns about 38% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 243% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.06 and $38.38 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$955.2M1$1.05B2$1.07B3$1.14B3$1.24B3
Net income$38.1M4$47.3M5$50.6M6$53M6$54.4M6
Operating cash flow−$15.5M7$27.8M8$67.2M9$10.1M9$66M9
Capital expenditure$6.8M10$16M11$11.8M12$14.2M12$18.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$22.3M7$11.8M8$55.4M9−$4.07M9$47.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$69.4M13$91.4M14$71.2M15$55.4M15$95M15
Diluted shares7.6M28.9M27.4M26.7M26.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$92.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.83
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.05
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $92.19 of net worth that earned you $20.83 and generated $18.05 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
38% avg · 5y
FY21 28%FY22 55%FY23 40%FY24 32%FY25 37%

It earned about 38% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+243% shares · 5y

Share count is up 243% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.06 and $38.38 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$38.38
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$47.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$35.66
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$47.2M
Earnings Power Value
$20.06
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$50.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.77
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $35.66
The three cases
Bear0.0%$29.42
Base5.0%$35.66
Bull10.0%$43.13

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-024024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030223 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072255 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-024024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030223 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072255 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-024024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030223 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072255 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-024024 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030223 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072255 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-024024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030223 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072255 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)