MeritValue

Barings BDC, Inc.

BBDCdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Barings BDC, Inc. earns about 8% on equity, but has diluted owners by 61% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $10.04 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$77.7M1$4.68M2$128M3$110.3M3$101.9M3
Operating cash flow−$396.6M4$86.3M5$76.9M6$122.2M6$160.5M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$717.6M7$719M8$720.6M9$1.01B10$1.2B10
Cash & equivalents$84.3M11$139.4M12$70.5M12$91.3M12$66.8M12
Diluted shares65.3M102.9M107.0M105.8M105.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$110.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.69
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$114.38

10 shares is a claim on $110.33 of net worth that earned you $9.69 last year, against $114.38 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
8% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 0%FY23 11%FY24 9%FY25 9%

It earned an average 8% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+61% shares · 5y

Share count is up 61% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 68% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$10.04
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$101.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$16.67
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001379785-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001379785-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001379785-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001379785-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001379785-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001379785-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001379785-23-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001379785-24-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001379785-25-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001379785-26-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001379785-25-000010 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001379785-26-000009 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)