MeritValue

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.

BBAIdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. earns about -36% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 235% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$145.6M1$155M2$155.2M3$158.2M3$127.7M3
Net income−$123.6M4−$111.4M5−$70.7M6−$295.5M6−$293.9M6
Operating cash flow−$19.8M7−$48.9M8−$18.3M9−$38.1M9−$42M9
Capital expenditure$645,00010$769,00011$2,00012$484,00012$525,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$20.4M7−$49.7M8−$18.3M9−$38.6M9−$42.5M9
Total debt$393.4M13$390.8M14$316M15$273.3M16$230.6M16
Cash & equivalents$68.9M17$12.6M18$32.6M19$50.1M19$87.1M19
Diluted shares107.0M127.7M149.2M233.6M358.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$17.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$8.19
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.18
Debt you’d be carrying
$6.43

10 shares is a claim on $17.05 of net worth that earned you −$8.19 and generated −$1.18 of cash last year, against $6.43 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-36% avg · 5y
FY21 -19%FY22 -20%FY23 -14%FY24 -97%FY25 -31%

It earned an average -36% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+235% shares · 5y

Share count is up 235% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 41% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011538 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014752 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001836981-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011538 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014752 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001836981-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011538 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014752 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001836981-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011538 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014752 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001836981-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-011116 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011538 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014752 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001836981-26-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011538 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014752 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001836981-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)