MeritValue

BAXTER INTERNATIONAL INC

BAXdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

BAXTER INTERNATIONAL INC earns about -1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0 and $1.18 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.1B1$10.1B2$10.4B3$10.6B3$11.2B3
Net income$1.28B4−$2.43B5$2.66B6−$649M6−$957M6
Operating cash flow$2.22B7$1.21B8$1.73B9$1.02B9$845M9
Capital expenditure$691M10$377M11$432M12$446M12$513M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.53B7$834M8$1.29B9$573M9$332M9
Total debt$18.1B13$17B14$13.9B15$15.3B16$9.44B17
Cash & equivalents$2.95B18$1.62B19$3.08B20$1.76B20$1.97B20
Diluted shares508.0M504.0M508.0M510.0M513.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$119.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$18.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.47
Debt you’d be carrying
$184

10 shares is a claim on $119.47 of net worth that earned you −$18.65 and generated $6.47 of cash last year, against $184 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 -11%FY23 3%FY24 0%FY25 -1%

It earned about -1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 48% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0 and $1.18 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$573M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$573M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1.18
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.18
Base0.0%$1.18
Bull5.0%$4.99

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003932 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007201 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007733 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003932 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007201 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007733 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003932 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007201 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007733 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003932 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007201 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007733 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-003432 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-002864 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003932 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007201 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007733 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003932 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007201 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007733 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)