MeritValue

GraniteShares Gold Trust

BARdata completeness 25%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'operatingCashFlow'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'cash'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'stockholdersEquity'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

The applicable estimate puts fair value near $12.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$12M1$19.6M2$39.7M3$187.7M3$315.7M3
Operating cash flow—————
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares62.5M54.3M50.6M46.6M33.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
—
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$93.65
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares of this business that earned you $93.65 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−46% shares · 5y

Share count is down 46% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$12.2
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$39.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001493152-23-028498 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001493152-24-032633 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001493152-25-011793 (NetIncomeLoss)