MeritValue

BANCFIRST CORP /OK/

BANFdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

BANCFIRST CORP /OK/ earns about 26% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $65.07 and $164.02 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$327M1$419.8M2$623.9M3$724.1M3$760.3M3
Net income$167.6M4$193.1M5$212.5M6$216.4M6$240.6M6
Operating cash flow$203.9M7$226.3M8$233M9$261.2M9$285.3M9
Capital expenditure$27.3M10$19.8M11$22.5M12$36.7M12$48.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$176.7M7$206.5M8$210.5M9$224.5M9$237M9
Total debt$013$300,00014$3.35M15$016$10M16
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares33.3M33.4M33.5M33.6M33.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$547.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$71.11
Free cash flow it threw off
$70.03
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.96

10 shares is a claim on $547.95 of net worth that earned you $71.11 and generated $70.03 of cash last year, against $2.96 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
26% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 18%FY23 26%FY24 35%FY25 34%

It earned about 26% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $65.07 and $164.02 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$164.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.3%
  • fcfBase$224.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$135.15
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.3%
  • fcfBase$224.5M
Earnings Power Value
$65.07
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$212.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$93.63
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $135.15
The three cases
Bear0.0%$94.52
Base8.3%$135.15
Bull13.3%$165.97

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020908 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030159 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-075954 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020908 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030159 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-075954 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020908 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030159 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-075954 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020908 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030159 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-075954 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004378 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020908 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030159 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-075954 (ShortTermBorrowings)