MeritValue

Bally's Corp

BALYdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Bally's Corp earns about -2% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 55% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$372.8M1$1.32B2$2.26B3$2.45B3$2.45B4
Net income−$5.49M5−$114.7M6−$425.5M7−$187.5M7−$567.8M8
Operating cash flow$19.5M9$82.8M10$271M11$188.6M11$114M12
Capital expenditure$15.3M13$97.5M14$212.3M15$311.5M15$199.8M16
Free cash flow (derived)$4.22M9−$14.8M10$58.7M11−$122.9M11−$85.8M12
Total debt$2.2B17$6.89B18$6.98B19$7.33B20$6.64B21
Cash & equivalents$123.4M22$206.2M23$212.5M24$163.2M24$171.2M25
Diluted shares31.3M49.6M58.1M53.4M48.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$6.38
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$117.14
Free cash flow it threw off
−$17.71
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,369.44

10 shares is a claim on $6.38 of net worth that earned you −$117.14 and generated −$17.71 of cash last year, against $1,369.44 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-2% avg · 5y
FY20 -0%FY21 -0%FY22 -3%FY23 1%FY24 -7%

It earned an average -2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+55% shares · 5y

Share count is up 55% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 202% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001747079-23-000031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001747079-24-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001747079-25-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001747079-26-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001747079-23-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001747079-24-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001747079-25-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001747079-26-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001747079-23-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001747079-24-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001747079-25-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001747079-26-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001747079-23-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001747079-24-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001747079-25-000039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001747079-26-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001747079-22-000137 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001747079-23-000031 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001747079-24-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001747079-25-000039 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001747079-26-000034 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001747079-23-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001747079-24-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001747079-25-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  25. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001747079-26-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)