BALL Corp
BALLdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'
BALL Corp earns about 22% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 17% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $32.83 and $173.35 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.8B1 | $13.4B2 | $12.1B3 | $11.8B3 | $13.2B3 |
| Net income | $878M4 | $732M5 | $711M6 | $4.01B6 | $915M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $1.76B7 | $301M8 | $1.86B9 | $115M9 | $1.26B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $1.73B10 | $1.65B11 | $1.05B12 | $484M12 | $474M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $34M7 | −$1.35B8 | $818M9 | −$369M9 | $788M9 |
| Total debt | $15M13 | $1.41B14 | $1.92B15 | $552M16 | $23M16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $563M17 | $548M18 | $695M19 | $885M19 | $1.21B19 |
| Diluted shares | 331.6M | 320.0M | 317.0M | 308.2M | 276.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $196.43 of net worth that earned you $33.16 and generated $28.55 of cash last year, against $0.83 of debt.
It earned about 22% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 17% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 53% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $32.83 and $173.35 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$788M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$788M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$878M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $44.86 |
| Base | 20.0% | $96.81 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $96.81 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001349 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001190 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017410 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001349 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001190 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017410 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001349 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001190 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017410 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001349 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001190 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017410 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000009389-23-000011 (DebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001349 (DebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001190 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017410 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001349 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001190 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017410 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)