MeritValue

BayFirst Financial Corp.

BAFNdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

BayFirst Financial Corp. earns about 84% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.12 and $1,379.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$24.6M1−$349,0002$5.7M3$10.2M4−$24.6M4
Operating cash flow$495.4M5$440.3M6$454.8M7$393.4M8$288.8M8
Capital expenditure$13.1M9$8.06M10$7.58M11$1.69M12$300,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$482.3M5$432.2M6$447.2M7$391.7M8$288.5M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$109.7M13$66M14$58.4M15$77.8M16$207M16
Diluted shares4.1M4.2M4.6M4.1M4.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$197.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$59.48
Free cash flow it threw off
$698.69
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $197.55 of net worth that earned you −$59.48 and generated $698.69 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
84% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 47%FY23 73%FY24 132%FY25 —

It earned about 84% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.12 and $1,379.64 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1,280.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$391.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1,379.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$391.7M
Earnings Power Value
$14.12
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.06%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1,379.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1,379.64
Base0.0%$1,379.64
Bull5.0%$1,700.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001649739-23-000111 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001649739-24-000122 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001649739-25-000106 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001649739-26-000049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001649739-23-000111 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001649739-24-000122 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001649739-25-000106 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001649739-26-000049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001649739-23-000111 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001649739-24-000122 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001649739-25-000106 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001649739-26-000049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001649739-23-000111 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001649739-24-000122 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001649739-25-000106 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001649739-26-000049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)