MeritValue

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.

BAERdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. earns about -28% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 35% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$46.4M1$66.7M2$98.6M3$122.8M3
Net income−$42.1M4−$77.4M5−$15.6M6$4.14M6
Operating cash flow−$9.92M7−$26.8M8$9.36M9$16.7M9
Capital expenditure$25.6M10$20.7M11$4.08M12$80.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$35.5M7−$47.5M8$5.27M9−$64.2M9
Total debt$207.9M13$418.1M14$413M15$435.8M15
Cash & equivalents$30.2M16$23M17$39.3M18$31.4M18
Diluted shares40.3M77.5M50.5M54.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$63.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.76
Free cash flow it threw off
−$11.83
Debt you’d be carrying
$80.28

10 shares is a claim on −$63.11 of net worth that earned you $0.76 and generated −$11.83 of cash last year, against $80.28 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-28% avg · 4y
FY22 —FY23 -64%FY24 -27%FY25 6%

It earned an average -28% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+35% shares · 4y

Share count is up 35% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 110% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-031786 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012821 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001941536-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-031786 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012821 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001941536-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-031786 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012821 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001941536-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-031786 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012821 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001941536-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-031786 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012821 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001941536-26-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-031786 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012821 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001941536-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)