MeritValue

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd

BABAdata completeness 75%12 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd earns about 10% on invested capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $5.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$134.6B1$126.5B2$130.4B3$137.3B4$148.4B5
Net income$9.82B6$10.6B7$11.1B8$17.9B9$15B10
Operating cash flow$22.5B11$29.1B12$25.3B13$22.5B14$11B15
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$30B16$28.1B17$34.4B18$20B19$19.1B20
Diluted shares21.79B21.11B20.36B19.32B19.23B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$79.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.81
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $79.96 of net worth that earned you $7.81 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY22 5%FY23 10%FY24 12%FY25 15%FY26 11%

It earned an average 10% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$5.97
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$11.1B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$12
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001104659-22-082622 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-23-033752 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-063767 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-090161 (Revenues)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2026-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-231755 (Revenues)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001104659-22-082622 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-23-033752 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-063767 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-090161 (NetIncomeLoss)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2026-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-231755 (NetIncomeLoss)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001104659-22-082622 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-23-033752 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-063767 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-090161 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2026-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-231755 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001104659-22-082622 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-23-033752 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-063767 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-090161 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2026-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-231755 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)