MeritValue

BARRICK MINING CORP

Bdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

BARRICK MINING CORP earns about 18% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.51 and $15.23 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12B1$11B2$11.4B3$12.9B4$17B4
Net income$2.02B5$432M6$1.27B7$2.14B8$4.99B8
Operating cash flow$4.38B9$3.48B10$3.73B11$4.49B12$7.69B12
Capital expenditure$2.44B13$3.05B14$3.09B15$3.17B16$3.82B16
Free cash flow (derived)$1.94B9$432M10$646M11$1.32B12$3.87B12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$5.28B17$4.44B18$4.15B19$4.07B19$6.71B19
Diluted shares1.78B1.76B1.76B1.73B1.68B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$158.52
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$29.8
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.09
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $158.52 of net worth that earned you $29.8 and generated $23.09 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 19%FY22 7%FY23 11%FY24 17%FY25 38%

It earned about 18% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.51 and $15.23 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$14.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.32B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$15.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.32B
Earnings Power Value
$12.51
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.02B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$32.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $15.23
The three cases
Bear0.0%$15.23
Base0.0%$15.23
Bull5.0%$17.95

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-073212 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-068583 (Revenue)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-054500 (Revenue)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079253 (Revenue)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-073212 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-068583 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-054500 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079253 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-073212 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-068583 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-054500 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079253 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-073212 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-068583 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-054500 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079253 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-068583 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-054500 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-079253 (CashAndCashEquivalents)