MeritValue

AZZ INC

AZZdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

AZZ INC earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 20% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $34.71 and $276.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$525.6M1$1.32B2$1.54B3$1.58B3$1.65B3
Net income$84M4−$53M5$101.6M6$128.8M6$317.3M6
Operating cash flow$86M7$91.4M8$244.5M9$249.9M9$525.4M9
Capital expenditure$23.6M10$57.1M11$95.1M12$115.9M12$80.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$62.4M7$34.3M8$149.3M9$134M9$444.7M9
Total debt$453M13$1.06B14$952.7M15$852.4M16$477.7M16
Cash & equivalents$12.1M17$2.82M18$4.35M19$1.49M20$705,00020
Diluted shares25.1M25.0M25.2M29.3M30.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$442.56
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$105.01
Free cash flow it threw off
$147.19
Debt you’d be carrying
$158.13

10 shares is a claim on $442.56 of net worth that earned you $105.01 and generated $147.19 of cash last year, against $158.13 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY22 5%FY23 8%FY24 11%FY25 10%FY26 20%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+20% shares · 5y

Share count is up 20% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $34.71 and $276.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$276.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$149.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$144.36
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$149.3M
Earnings Power Value
$34.71
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$101.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$102.82
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.97%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $144.36
The three cases
Bear0.0%$54.42
Base20.0%$144.36
Bull20.0%$144.36

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0000008947-24-000044 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0000008947-25-000046 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0000008947-26-000068 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0000008947-24-000044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0000008947-25-000046 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0000008947-26-000068 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0000008947-22-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0000008947-25-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0000008947-26-000068 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0000008947-24-000044 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0000008947-25-000046 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0000008947-26-000068 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0000008947-23-000042 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0000008947-24-000044 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0000008947-25-000046 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-28 · accession 0000008947-26-000068 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0000008947-23-000042 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0000008947-24-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0000008947-25-000046 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-28 · accession 0000008947-26-000068 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)