MeritValue

AUTOZONE INC

AZOdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

AUTOZONE INC earns about 84% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 24% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $966.34 and $1,487.35 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$14.6B1$16.3B2$17.5B3$18.5B3$18.9B3
Net income$2.17B4$2.43B5$2.53B6$2.66B6$2.5B6
Operating cash flow$3.52B7$3.21B8$2.94B9$3B9$3.12B9
Capital expenditure$621.8M10$672.4M11$796.7M12$1.07B12$1.33B12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.9B7$2.54B8$2.14B9$1.93B9$1.79B9
Total debt$5.27B13$6.12B14$7.67B15$9.02B16$8.8B16
Cash & equivalents$1.17B17$264.4M18$277.1M19$298.2M20$271.8M20
Diluted shares22.8M20.7M19.1M17.8M17.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$1,979.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1,448.68
Free cash flow it threw off
$1,038.03
Debt you’d be carrying
$5,102.8

10 shares is a claim on −$1,979.89 of net worth that earned you $1,448.68 and generated $1,038.03 of cash last year, against $5,102.8 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
84% avg · 5y
FY21 101%FY22 112%FY23 92%FY24 67%FY25 49%

It earned about 84% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−24% shares · 5y

Share count is down 24% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 67% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $966.34 and $1,487.35 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$966.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.93B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1,084.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.93B
Earnings Power Value
$1,487.35
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.5B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1,084.56
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1,084.56
Base0.0%$1,084.56
Bull5.0%$1,466.13

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0001558370-23-016668 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-27 · accession 0001558370-24-013758 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-26 · accession 0001104659-25-102611 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0001558370-23-016668 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-27 · accession 0001558370-24-013758 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-26 · accession 0001104659-25-102611 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0001558370-23-016668 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-27 · accession 0001558370-24-013758 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-26 · accession 0001104659-25-102611 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0001558370-23-016668 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-27 · accession 0001558370-24-013758 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-26 · accession 0001104659-25-102611 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0001558370-22-015239 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-27 · accession 0001558370-23-016668 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-26 · accession 0001558370-24-013758 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0001104659-25-102611 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0001558370-22-015239 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-27 · accession 0001558370-23-016668 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-26 · accession 0001558370-24-013758 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0001104659-25-102611 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)