MeritValue

ASTRAZENECA PLC

AZNdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'depreciationAmortization'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

ASTRAZENECA PLC earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $39.44 and $360.65 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$37.4B1$44.4B2$45.8B3$54.1B3$58.7B3
Net income$112M4$3.29B5$5.96B6$7.04B6$10.2B6
Operating cash flow$5.96B7$9.81B8$10.3B9$11.9B9$14.6B9
Capital expenditure$1.09B10$1.09B11$1.36B12$1.92B12$2.81B12
Free cash flow (derived)$4.87B7$8.72B8$8.98B9$9.94B9$11.8B9
Total debt$30.8B13$29.2B14$28.6B14$30.3B15$29.6B15
Cash & equivalents$6.33B16$6.17B17$5.84B18$5.49B18$5.71B18
Diluted shares1.42B1.55B1.55B1.55B1.55B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$313.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$65.97
Free cash flow it threw off
$75.9
Debt you’d be carrying
$191.11

10 shares is a claim on $313.98 of net worth that earned you $65.97 and generated $75.9 of cash last year, against $191.11 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 6%FY23 11%FY24 12%FY25 16%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $39.44 and $360.65 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$360.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$9.94B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$190.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$9.94B
Earnings Power Value
$39.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.96B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$67.97
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $190.61
The three cases
Bear0.0%$74.96
Base20.0%$190.61
Bull20.0%$190.61

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-025553 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-014750 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019130 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-025553 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-014750 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019130 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-025553 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-014750 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019130 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-025553 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-014750 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019130 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-025553 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-014750 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019130 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-025553 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-014750 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019130 (CashAndCashEquivalents)