MeritValue

AYTU BIOPHARMA, INC

AYTUdata completeness 100%20 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AYTU BIOPHARMA, INC earns about -346% on invested capital, and has bought back 63% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$65.6M1$96.7M2$107.4M3$65.2M4$66.4M4
Net income−$58.3M5−$108.8M6−$17.1M7−$15.8M8−$13.6M8
Operating cash flow−$26M9−$28.8M10−$5.13M11−$1.39M12−$1.94M12
Capital expenditure$2.34M13$013—$329,00014$228,00014
Free cash flow (derived)−$28.3M9−$28.8M10—−$1.72M12−$2.17M12
Total debt—$18.8M15$31.4M16$15.1M16$12.8M17
Cash & equivalents$49.6M18$19.4M19$23M20$20M21$31M21
Diluted shares16.7M1.5M3.3M5.5M6.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$30.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$21.6
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.45
Debt you’d be carrying
$20.31

10 shares is a claim on $30.2 of net worth that earned you −$21.6 and generated −$3.45 of cash last year, against $20.31 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-346% avg · 5y
FY21 -52%FY22 -195%FY23 -28%FY24 -36%FY25 -1418%

It earned an average -346% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−63% shares · 5y

Share count is down 63% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 32% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-22-014652 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-016393 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-030062 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-029723 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-22-014652 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-016393 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-030062 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-029723 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-22-014652 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-016393 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-030062 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-029723 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-22-014652 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-029723 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-22-014652 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-030062 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-029723 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-22-014652 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-016393 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001437749-24-030062 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001437749-25-029723 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)