MeritValue

Ayr Wellness Inc.

AYRWFdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Ayr Wellness Inc. earns about -6% on invested capital, and has bought back 100% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$155.1M1$357.6M2$421.4M3$463.6M4$463.6M4
Net income−$24.6M5−$17M6−$245.5M7−$272.4M8−$359.3M8
Operating cash flow——−$34.2M9$27.2M10$9.63M10
Capital expenditure$14.4M11$91.6M12$58.8M13$27.7M14$17.7M14
Free cash flow (derived)——−$93M9−$532,00010−$8.08M10
Total debt——$176.8M15$434.5M16$820.9M16
Cash & equivalents$127.2M17$150.1M18$76.8M19$50.8M19$35.5M20
Diluted shares28.9M57,32968,63574,096110,832

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$34,243.36
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$32,419.25
Free cash flow it threw off
−$729.39
Debt you’d be carrying
$74,071.39

10 shares is a claim on $34,243.36 of net worth that earned you −$32,419.25 and generated −$729.39 of cash last year, against $74,071.39 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-6% avg · 5y
FY20 -1%FY21 1%FY22 -12%FY23 -1%FY24 -16%

It earned an average -6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−100% shares · 5y

Share count is down 100% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 364% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-040047 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-030769 (Revenue)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-033746 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-026765 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-040047 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-030769 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-033746 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-026765 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-033746 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-026765 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-040047 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-030769 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-033746 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-026765 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-033746 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-026765 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-030769 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-033746 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-033746 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-026765 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)