MeritValue

Aircastle LTD

AYRdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Aircastle LTD earns about 3% on invested capital. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$769.8M1$796M2$855.4M3$821M3$975.1M3
Net income−$278.2M4$62.8M5$83.3M6$123.6M6$194M6
Operating cash flow$372.9M7$437.7M8$370.3M9$464M9$483.1M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$4.52B10$4.59B11$4.7B12$4.96B13$5.25B13
Cash & equivalents$167.9M14$231.9M14$130M15$279.1M16$179.9M16
Diluted shares—————

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY22 -1%FY23 3%FY24 4%FY25 5%FY26 6%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Total debt has risen 16% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
no diluted share count
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0001628280-24-018039 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0001628280-25-019189 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0001628280-26-026216 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0001628280-24-018039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0001628280-25-019189 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0001628280-26-026216 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0001628280-24-018039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0001628280-25-019189 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0001628280-26-026216 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0001362988-23-000019 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0001628280-24-018039 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0001628280-25-019189 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-28 · accession 0001628280-26-026216 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0001628280-24-018039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0001628280-25-019189 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-28 · accession 0001628280-26-026216 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)