MeritValue

AXT INC

AXTIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

AXT INC earns about 0% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$137.4M1$141.1M1$75.8M2$99.4M2$88.3M2
Net income$14.6M3$15.8M4−$17.9M5−$11.6M5−$21.3M5
Operating cash flow−$3.31M6−$8.77M7$3.4M8−$12.1M8−$12.8M8
Capital expenditure$29.6M9$28.5M10$10.5M11$5.77M11$6M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$33M6−$37.2M7−$7.07M8−$17.9M8−$18.8M8
Total debt$12.2M12$47.1M13$52.9M14$94.5M15$125.6M16
Cash & equivalents$36.8M17$34.9M18$37.8M19$22.8M20$120.3M20
Diluted shares42.7M42.7M42.6M43.2M43.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$62.21
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.84
Free cash flow it threw off
−$4.27
Debt you’d be carrying
$28.6

10 shares is a claim on $62.21 of net worth that earned you −$4.84 and generated −$4.27 of cash last year, against $28.6 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 8%FY23 -7%FY24 -3%FY25 -6%

It earned an average 0% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 927% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003410 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008612 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003410 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008612 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003410 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008612 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003410 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008612 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004035 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003410 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003004 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003004 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008612 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003410 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008612 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)