MeritValue

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.

AXTAdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.63 and $17.63 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.42B1$4.88B2$5.18B3$5.28B3$5.12B3
Net income$263.9M4$192M5$267M6$391M6$378M6
Operating cash flow$558.6M7$294M8$575M9$576M9$649M9
Capital expenditure$121.6M10$151M11$138M12$140M12$196M12
Free cash flow (derived)$437M7$143M8$437M9$436M9$453M9
Total debt$4B13$3.72B14$3.51B15$3.42B16$3.2B16
Cash & equivalents$840.6M17$645M18$700M19$593M19$657M19
Diluted shares231.9M222.3M221.9M220.4M217.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$108.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$17.42
Free cash flow it threw off
$20.88
Debt you’d be carrying
$147.56

10 shares is a claim on $108.11 of net worth that earned you $17.42 and generated $20.88 of cash last year, against $147.56 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 7%FY23 9%FY24 12%FY25 10%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 20% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.63 and $17.63 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$16.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.8%
  • fcfBase$437M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$17.63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.8%
  • fcfBase$437M
Earnings Power Value
$12.63
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$267M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.57
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.8%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $17.63
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.66
Base0.8%$17.63
Bull5.8%$24.68

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001616862-24-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001616862-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001616862-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001616862-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001616862-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001616862-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001616862-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001616862-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001616862-22-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001616862-24-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001616862-25-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001616862-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001616862-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)