MeritValue

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.

AXSMdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -368% on equity, but has diluted owners by 32% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$50M1$270.6M2$385.7M2$638.5M2
Net income−$130.4M3−$187.1M4−$239.2M5−$287.2M5−$183.2M5
Operating cash flow−$108.2M6−$116.5M7−$145.1M8−$128.4M8−$93.4M8
Capital expenditure$308,0009$702,00010$582,00011$270,00011$480,00011
Free cash flow (derived)−$108.5M6−$117.2M7−$145.7M8−$128.7M8−$93.9M8
Total debt$49.1M12$94.3M13$178.1M14$180.7M15$187.7M15
Cash & equivalents$86.5M16$200.8M17$386.2M18$315.4M19$322.9M19
Diluted shares37.6M40.7M45.4M47.9M49.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$17.75
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$36.82
Free cash flow it threw off
−$18.87
Debt you’d be carrying
$37.74

10 shares is a claim on $17.75 of net worth that earned you −$36.82 and generated −$18.87 of cash last year, against $37.74 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-368% avg · 5y
FY21 -834%FY22 -171%FY23 -125%FY24 -504%FY25 -207%

It earned an average -368% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+32% shares · 5y

Share count is up 32% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 282% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022457 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-064267 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019118 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022457 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-064267 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019118 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022457 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-064267 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019118 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022457 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-064267 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004728 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019118 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022457 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-064267 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004728 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019118 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022457 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-064267 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)