MeritValue

AXIS CAPITAL HOLDINGS LTD

AXSdata completeness 75%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

AXIS CAPITAL HOLDINGS LTD earns about 16% on invested capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $80.87 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.32B1$5.14B2$5.64B3$5.96B3$6.56B3
Net income$618.6M4$223.1M5$376.3M6$1.08B6$1.01B6
Operating cash flow$1.2B7$798M8$1.26B9$1.84B9−$40.9M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$844.6M10$751.4M11$953.5M12$2.14B13$820.3M13
Diluted shares85.3M85.7M86.0M85.2M79.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$801.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$127.28
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $801.91 of net worth that earned you $127.28 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 7%FY23 10%FY24 28%FY25 19%

It earned an average 16% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$80.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$618.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$149.28
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001214816-24-000024 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001214816-25-000056 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001214816-26-000097 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001214816-24-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001214816-25-000056 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001214816-26-000097 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001214816-24-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001214816-25-000056 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001214816-26-000097 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001214816-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001214816-24-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001214816-25-000056 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001214816-26-000097 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)