MeritValue

AMERICAN EXPRESS CO

AXPdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.7B1$34.2B2$37.2B3$38.8B3$41.3B3
Net income$8.06B4$7.51B5$8.37B6$10.1B6$10.8B6
Operating cash flow$14.6B7$21.1B8$18.6B9$14.1B9$18.4B9
Capital expenditure$1.55B10$1.86B11$1.56B12$1.91B12$2.43B12
Free cash flow (derived)$13.1B7$19.2B8$17B9$12.1B9$16B9
Total debt$40.9B13$43.9B14$49.2B15$51.1B16$57.8B16
Cash & equivalents$22B17$33.9B18$46.6B18$40.6B18$47.8B18
Diluted shares790.0M752.0M736.0M713.0M696.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
You’d own
0.0000014%
of the whole company
Your share of last year’s profit
$155.65
Your share of its debt
$829.86
Your share of free cash flow
$229.93
iii. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$510.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.5%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.9%
  • fcfBase$16B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$439.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.5%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.9%
  • fcfBase$16B
Earnings Power Value
$126.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.5%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$8.37B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$129.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

iv. The price question — last, on purpose
What does today’s price assume?
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years6.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.78%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $439.3

Default growth 6.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000004962-24-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000004962-25-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000004962-26-000080 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000004962-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000004962-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000004962-26-000080 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000004962-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000004962-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000004962-26-000080 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000004962-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000004962-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000004962-26-000080 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000004962-23-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000004962-24-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000004962-25-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000004962-26-000080 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000004962-25-000016 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000004962-26-000080 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)