MeritValue

AMERICAN EXPRESS CO

AXPdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'depreciationAmortization'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

AMERICAN EXPRESS CO earns about 41% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $123.53 and $490.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.7B1$34.2B2$37.2B3$38.8B3$41.3B3
Net income$8.06B4$7.51B5$8.37B6$10.1B6$10.8B6
Operating cash flow$14.6B7$21.1B8$18.6B9$14.1B9$18.4B9
Capital expenditure$1.55B10$1.86B11$1.56B12$1.91B12$2.43B12
Free cash flow (derived)$13.1B7$19.2B8$17B9$12.1B9$16B9
Total debt$40.9B13$43.9B14$49.2B15$51.1B16$57.8B16
Cash & equivalents$22B17$33.9B18$46.6B18$40.6B18$47.8B18
Diluted shares790.0M752.0M736.0M713.0M696.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$480.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$155.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$229.93
Debt you’d be carrying
$829.86

10 shares is a claim on $480.95 of net worth that earned you $155.65 and generated $229.93 of cash last year, against $829.86 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
41% avg · 5y
FY21 22%FY22 28%FY23 45%FY24 55%FY25 56%

It earned about 41% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 41% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $123.53 and $490.06 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$490.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.9%
  • fcfBase$16B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$422.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.9%
  • fcfBase$16B
Earnings Power Value
$123.53
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$8.37B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$129.95
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years6.9%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $422.12
The three cases
Bear0.0%$309.86
Base6.9%$422.12
Bull11.9%$522.31

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 6.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000004962-24-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000004962-25-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000004962-26-000080 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000004962-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000004962-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000004962-26-000080 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000004962-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000004962-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000004962-26-000080 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000004962-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000004962-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000004962-26-000080 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000004962-23-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000004962-24-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000004962-25-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000004962-26-000080 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000004962-25-000016 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000004962-26-000080 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)