MeritValue

AXON ENTERPRISE, INC.

AXONdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

AXON ENTERPRISE, INC. earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 24% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $18.48 and $64.48 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$863.4M1$1.19B2$1.56B3$2.08B3$2.78B3
Net income−$60M4$146.9M5$175.8M6$377M6$124.7M6
Operating cash flow$124.5M7$235.4M8$189.3M9$408.3M9$211.3M9
Capital expenditure$49.9M10$55.8M11$59.6M12$78.8M12$136.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$74.6M7$179.6M8$129.6M9$329.5M9$75.1M9
Total debt——$677.1M13$1.36B14$3.62B14
Cash & equivalents$356.3M15$353.7M16$598.5M17$454.8M17$1.2B17
Diluted shares66.2M72.5M75.5M78.6M82.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$393.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.13
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.12
Debt you’d be carrying
$439.66

10 shares is a claim on $393.67 of net worth that earned you $15.13 and generated $9.12 of cash last year, against $439.66 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 -16%FY22 16%FY23 9%FY24 12%FY25 0%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+24% shares · 5y

Share count is up 24% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 435% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $18.48 and $64.48 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$64.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$129.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$21.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$129.6M
Earnings Power Value
$18.48
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$146.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$37.06
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $21.93
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$6.9
Base20.0%$21.93
Bull20.0%$21.93

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001069183-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001069183-25-000075 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011360 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001069183-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001069183-25-000075 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011360 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001069183-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001069183-25-000075 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011360 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001069183-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001069183-25-000075 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011360 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001069183-25-000075 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011360 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001069183-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001069183-25-000075 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011360 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)