MeritValue

Axogen, Inc.

AXGNdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Axogen, Inc. earns about -19% on equity, but has diluted owners by 12% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$127.4M1$138.6M2$159M3$187.3M3$225.2M3
Net income−$27M4−$28.9M5−$21.7M6−$9.96M6−$15.7M6
Operating cash flow−$13.4M7−$16.1M8−$5.72M9$4.54M9$812,0009
Capital expenditure$27.8M10$20.1M11$13.9M12$3.1M12$3.75M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$41.2M7−$36.1M8−$19.6M9$1.43M9−$2.93M9
Total debt$89.6M13$91.4M14$93.2M15$95M16$96.8M16
Cash & equivalents$32.8M17$15.3M18$31M19$27.6M20$35.5M20
Diluted shares41.2M42.1M42.9M44.3M46.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$27.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.41
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.64
Debt you’d be carrying
$21.01

10 shares is a claim on $27.98 of net worth that earned you −$3.41 and generated −$0.64 of cash last year, against $21.01 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-19% avg · 5y
FY21 -24%FY22 -29%FY23 -23%FY24 -10%FY25 -12%

It earned an average -19% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+12% shares · 5y

Share count is up 12% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000805928-24-000028 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000805928-25-000017 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000805928-26-000031 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000805928-24-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000805928-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000805928-26-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000805928-24-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000805928-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000805928-26-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000805928-24-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000805928-25-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000805928-26-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000805928-23-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000805928-24-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000805928-25-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000805928-26-000031 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000805928-23-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000805928-24-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000805928-25-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000805928-26-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)