Axos Financial, Inc.
AXdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'
Axos Financial, Inc. earns about 316% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $78.45 and $210.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $59.4M1 | $65.3M2 | $64.6M3 | $65.8M3 | $81.3M3 |
| Net income | $240.7M4 | $307.2M5 | $450M6 | $432.9M6 | $490.4M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $216.6M7 | $196.7M8 | $305.5M9 | $490.3M9 | $557.6M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $21.5M10 | $30.2M11 | $36M12 | $54.2M12 | $266.4M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $195.1M7 | $166.5M8 | $269.5M9 | $436.1M9 | $291.1M9 |
| Total debt | $445.2M13 | $361.8M14 | $325.7M15 | $312.7M16 | $342.9M16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $1.57B17 | $2.23B18 | $1.98B19 | $1.93B20 | $1.11B20 |
| Diluted shares | 59.5M | 59.7M | 57.5M | 56.9M | 56.7M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $558.88 of net worth that earned you $86.55 and generated $51.39 of cash last year, against $60.53 of debt.
It earned about 316% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 23% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $78.45 and $210.06 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth14.3%
- fcfBase$291.1M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth14.3%
- fcfBase$291.1M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$432.9M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $85.97 |
| Base | 14.3% | $145.41 |
| Bull | 19.3% | $174.09 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 14.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001299709-24-000113 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001299709-25-000125 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001299709-26-000060 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001299709-24-000113 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001299709-25-000125 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001299709-26-000060 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001299709-24-000113 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001299709-25-000125 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001299709-26-000060 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001299709-24-000113 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001299709-25-000125 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001299709-26-000060 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001299709-23-000198 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001299709-24-000113 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001299709-25-000125 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001299709-26-000060 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001299709-23-000198 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001299709-24-000113 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001299709-25-000125 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001299709-26-000060 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)