MeritValue

Avalo Therapeutics, Inc.

AVTXdata completeness 75%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -230% on equity, but has diluted owners by 43% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.4M1$18.1M2$1.92M3$441,0004$59,0004
Net income−$84.4M5−$41.7M6−$31.5M7−$35.1M8−$78.3M8
Operating cash flow−$70.9M9−$26.8M10−$30.7M11−$49.1M12−$51.5M12
Capital expenditure$113,00013$95,00013$158,00014$014—
Free cash flow (derived)−$71M9−$26.8M10−$30.8M11−$49.1M12—
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$54.6M15$13.2M16$7.42M17$134.5M18$15.9M18
Diluted shares9.4M39,202277,7277.5M13.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$61.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$58.38
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $61.95 of net worth that earned you −$58.38 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-230% avg · 5y
FY21 -366%FY22 —FY23 -432%FY24 -26%FY25 -94%

It earned an average -230% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+43% shares · 5y

Share count is up 43% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009630 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013786 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013986 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001534120-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009630 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013786 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013986 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001534120-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009630 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013786 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013986 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001534120-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009630 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013986 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009630 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-013786 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013986 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001534120-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)