MeritValue

Avantor, Inc.

AVTRdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Avantor, Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.2 and $8.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.39B1$7.51B2$6.97B3$6.78B3$6.55B3
Net income$572.6M4$686.5M5$321.1M6$711.5M6−$530.2M6
Operating cash flow$953.6M7$843.6M8$870M9$840.8M9$623.8M9
Capital expenditure$111.1M10$133.4M11$146.4M12$148.8M12$128.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$842.5M7$710.2M8$723.6M9$692M9$495M9
Total debt$14B13$12.6B14$11.1B15$8.11B16$7.89B16
Cash & equivalents$301.7M17$372.9M18$262.9M19$261.9M20$365.4M20
Diluted shares599.6M679.4M678.4M681.9M680.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$81.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$7.79
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.27
Debt you’d be carrying
$115.97

10 shares is a claim on $81.77 of net worth that earned you −$7.79 and generated $7.27 of cash last year, against $115.97 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 5%FY23 3%FY24 5%FY25 -3%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+14% shares · 5y

Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 44% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.2 and $8.64 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$692M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.28
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$692M
Earnings Power Value
$8.64
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$572.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.28
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.28
Base0.0%$3.28
Bull5.0%$6.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001722482-24-000012 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001722482-25-000015 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007118 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001722482-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001722482-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007118 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001722482-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001722482-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007118 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001722482-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001722482-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007118 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001722482-23-000040 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001722482-24-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001722482-25-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007118 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001722482-23-000040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001722482-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001722482-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007118 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)