MeritValue

AVNET INC

AVTdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

AVNET INC earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 16% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $60.62 and $68.83 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$24.3B1$26.5B2$23.8B3$22.2B3$27.6B3
Net income$692.4M4$770.8M5$498.7M6$240.2M6$334.4M6
Operating cash flow−$219.3M7−$713.7M8$690M9$724.5M9−$280.9M9
Capital expenditure$48.9M10$194.7M11$226.5M12$147.5M12$73.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$268.2M7−$908.4M8$463.5M9$577M9−$354.5M9
Total debt$1.61B13$3.06B14$2.9B15$2.66B16$3.21B16
Cash & equivalents$153.7M17$288.2M18$310.9M19$192.4M20$155.4M20
Diluted shares99.8M93.4M91.8M87.4M83.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$602.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$40.09
Free cash flow it threw off
−$42.5
Debt you’d be carrying
$385.16

10 shares is a claim on $602.11 of net worth that earned you $40.09 and generated −$42.5 of cash last year, against $385.16 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY22 14%FY23 13%FY24 10%FY25 3%FY26 4%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−16% shares · 5y

Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 99% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $60.62 and $68.83 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$68.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$463.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$60.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$463.5M
Earnings Power Value
$61.38
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$498.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$73.71
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $60.62
The three cases
Bear0.0%$41.69
Base5.0%$60.62
Bull10.0%$83.27

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000008858-24-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0000008858-25-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0001104659-26-096346 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000008858-24-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0000008858-25-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0001104659-26-096346 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000008858-24-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0000008858-25-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0001104659-26-096346 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000008858-24-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0000008858-25-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0001104659-26-096346 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000008858-23-000029 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0000008858-24-000030 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0000008858-25-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-28 · accession 0001104659-26-096346 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000008858-23-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0000008858-24-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0000008858-25-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-28 · accession 0001104659-26-096346 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)