MeritValue

AvePoint, Inc.

AVPTdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

AvePoint, Inc. earns about -9% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 62% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.7 and $23.32 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$191.9M1$232.3M2$271.8M3$330.5M3$419.5M3
Net income−$35.2M4−$41.6M4−$21.7M5−$29.1M5$34.8M5
Operating cash flow$5.03M6−$774,0007$34.7M8$88.9M8$85.3M8
Capital expenditure$2.46M9$3.85M10$2.09M11$3.04M11$3.68M11
Free cash flow (derived)$2.57M6−$4.63M7$32.6M8$85.9M8$81.6M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$268.2M12$227.2M13$223.2M14$290.7M15$481.1M15
Diluted shares141.6M182.0M182.3M183.7M229.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$20.88
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.52
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.56
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $20.88 of net worth that earned you $1.52 and generated $3.56 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-9% avg · 5y
FY21 -14%FY22 -18%FY23 -10%FY24 -11%FY25 7%

It earned about -9% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+62% shares · 5y

Share count is up 62% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.7 and $23.32 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$23.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$81.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$13.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$81.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$2.65
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $13.7
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.18
Base20.0%$13.7
Bull20.0%$13.7

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006145 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005526 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005907 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006145 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005907 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006145 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005526 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005907 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006145 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005526 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005907 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008808 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006145 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005526 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005907 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)