MeritValue

Mission Produce, Inc.

AVOdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Mission Produce, Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.28 and $8.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$891.7M1$1.05B2$953.9M3$1.23B3$1.39B3
Net income$44.9M4−$34.6M5−$2.8M6$36.7M6$37.7M6
Operating cash flow$47M7$35.2M8$29.2M9$93.4M9$88.6M9
Capital expenditure$73.4M10$61.2M11$49.8M12$32.2M12$51.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$26.4M7−$26M8−$20.6M9$61.2M9$37.2M9
Total debt$327.8M13$283.3M14$306.8M15$230.4M16$196.1M16
Cash & equivalents$84.5M17$52.8M18$42.9M19$58M19$64.8M19
Diluted shares71.1M70.6M70.8M71.0M71.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$82.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.29
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.22
Debt you’d be carrying
$27.49

10 shares is a claim on $82.33 of net worth that earned you $5.29 and generated $5.22 of cash last year, against $27.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 -3%FY23 1%FY24 7%FY25 6%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 40% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.28 and $8.06 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$8.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$37.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$37.2M
Earnings Power Value
$5.28
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$36.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.96
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7.29
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5.51
Base5.0%$7.29
Bull10.0%$9.41

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001802974-23-000037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001802974-24-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001802974-25-000048 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001802974-23-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001802974-24-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001802974-25-000048 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001802974-23-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001802974-24-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001802974-25-000048 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001802974-23-000037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001802974-24-000053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001802974-25-000048 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001802974-22-000050 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001802974-23-000037 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001802974-24-000053 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-10-31 · accession 0001802974-25-000048 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001802974-23-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001802974-24-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001802974-25-000048 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)