MeritValue

AVIAT NETWORKS, INC.

AVNWdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

AVIAT NETWORKS, INC. earns about 8% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $8.66 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$274.9M1$303M2$344.4M3$408.1M3$434.6M3
Net income$110.1M4$21.2M5$10.2M6$10.8M6$1.34M6
Operating cash flow$17.3M7$2.79M8−$1.64M9$30.5M9$5.72M9
Capital expenditure$2.85M10$1.79M11$5.34M12$2.68M12$13M12
Free cash flow (derived)$14.5M7$997,0008−$6.98M9$27.9M9−$7.25M9
Total debt$013—$014$96.7M15$175.2M15
Cash & equivalents$47.9M16$36.9M17$22.2M18$64.6M19$59.7M19
Diluted shares11.7M11.8M11.9M12.5M12.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$205.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.05
Free cash flow it threw off
−$5.65
Debt you’d be carrying
$136.58

10 shares is a claim on $205.19 of net worth that earned you $1.05 and generated −$5.65 of cash last year, against $136.58 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 13%FY23 5%FY24 4%FY25 0%

It earned an average 8% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 5y

Share count is up 10% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$8.66
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$10.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$6.83
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-02 · accession 0001377789-21-000048 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001377789-24-000043 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001377789-25-000068 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-02 · accession 0001377789-23-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001377789-24-000043 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001377789-25-000068 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-02 · accession 0001377789-23-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001377789-24-000043 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001377789-25-000068 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-02 · accession 0001377789-23-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001377789-24-000043 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001377789-25-000068 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-02 · accession 0001377789-21-000048 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001377789-24-000043 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001377789-25-000068 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-02 · accession 0001377789-22-000137 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001377789-23-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001377789-24-000043 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001377789-25-000068 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)