MeritValue

AVIAT NETWORKS, INC.

AVNWdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

AVIAT NETWORKS, INC. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.22 and $17.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$303M1$344.4M2$408.1M3$434.6M3$439.7M3
Net income$21.2M4$10.2M5$10.8M6$1.34M6$2.54M6
Operating cash flow$2.79M7−$1.64M8$30.5M9$5.72M9$13.6M9
Capital expenditure$1.79M10$5.34M11$2.68M12$13M12$7.47M12
Free cash flow (derived)$997,0007−$6.98M8$27.9M9−$7.25M9$6.09M9
Total debt—$013$96.7M14$175.2M15$194M15
Cash & equivalents$36.9M16$22.2M17$64.6M18$59.7M19$72.8M19
Diluted shares11.8M11.9M12.5M12.8M13.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$205.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.95
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.67
Debt you’d be carrying
$148.92

10 shares is a claim on $205.26 of net worth that earned you $1.95 and generated $4.67 of cash last year, against $148.92 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY22 13%FY23 5%FY24 4%FY25 0%FY26 2%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 5y

Share count is up 10% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.22 and $17.06 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$17.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate5.0%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$6.09M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$5.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate5.0%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$6.09M
Earnings Power Value
$7.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate5.0%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$10.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.45
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.23%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $5.22
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$2.92
Base20.0%$5.22
Bull20.0%$5.22

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001377789-24-000043 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001377789-25-000068 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001628280-26-059187 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001377789-24-000043 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001377789-25-000068 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001628280-26-059187 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001377789-24-000043 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001377789-25-000068 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001628280-26-059187 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001377789-24-000043 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001377789-25-000068 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001628280-26-059187 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001377789-24-000043 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001377789-25-000068 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-27 · accession 0001628280-26-059187 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0001377789-23-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001377789-24-000043 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001377789-25-000068 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-27 · accession 0001628280-26-059187 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)