Broadcom Inc.

AVGOdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Broadcom Inc. earns about 63% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 1031% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $24.32 and $145.73 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.5B1$33.2B2$35.8B3$51.6B3$63.9B3
Net income$6.74B4$11.5B5$14.1B5$5.9B5$23.1B6
Operating cash flow$13.8B7$16.7B8$18.1B9$20B9$27.5B9
Capital expenditure$443M10$424M11$452M12$548M12$623M12
Free cash flow (derived)$13.3B7$16.3B8$17.6B9$19.4B9$26.9B9
Total debt$79.4B13$403M14$1.56B15$1.25B16$3.15B16
Cash & equivalents$12.2B17$12.4B18$14.2B19$9.35B20$16.2B20
Diluted shares429.0M4.23B4.27B4.78B4.85B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$167.51
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$47.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$55.46
Debt you’d be carrying
$6.49

10 shares is a claim on $167.51 of net worth that earned you $47.65 and generated $55.46 of cash last year, against $6.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
63% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 122%FY23 137%FY24 14%FY25 33%

It earned about 63% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1031% shares · 5y

Share count is up 1031% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 96% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $24.32 and $145.73 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$145.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth13.4%
  • fcfBase$19.4B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$101.74
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth13.4%
  • fcfBase$19.4B
Earnings Power Value
$24.32
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$11.5B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$42.9
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years13.4%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $101.74
The three cases
Bear0.0%$59.09
Base13.4%$101.74
Bull18.4%$123.42

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 13.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001730168-23-000096 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-30 · accession 0001730168-24-000139 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-29 · accession 0001730168-25-000121 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001730168-23-000096 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-30 · accession 0001730168-24-000139 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2025-11-02 · accession 0001730168-25-000121 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001730168-23-000096 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-30 · accession 0001730168-24-000139 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-29 · accession 0001730168-25-000121 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001730168-23-000096 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-30 · accession 0001730168-24-000139 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-29 · accession 0001730168-25-000121 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001730168-21-000153 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-30 · accession 0001730168-23-000096 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-29 · accession 0001730168-24-000139 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-03 · accession 0001730168-25-000121 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001730168-22-000118 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-30 · accession 0001730168-23-000096 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-29 · accession 0001730168-24-000139 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-03 · accession 0001730168-25-000121 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)