MeritValue

AMERICAN VANGUARD CORP

AVDdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AMERICAN VANGUARD CORP earns about -2% on invested capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $2.74 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$557.7M1$609.6M2$579.4M3$547.3M3$515.1M3
Net income$18.6M4$27.4M5$7.52M6−$126.3M6−$49.9M6
Operating cash flow$86.4M7$57.1M8−$58.7M9$3.92M9−$21.2M9
Capital expenditure$9.52M10$13.3M11$11.9M12$7.28M12$3.92M12
Free cash flow (derived)$76.8M7$43.8M8−$70.6M9−$3.36M9−$25.1M9
Total debt$52.2M13$51.5M14$138.9M15$147.3M16$174M16
Cash & equivalents$16.3M17$20.3M17———
Diluted shares30.4M29.9M28.5M28.1M28.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$67.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$17.55
Free cash flow it threw off
−$8.83
Debt you’d be carrying
$61.21

10 shares is a claim on $67.68 of net worth that earned you −$17.55 and generated −$8.83 of cash last year, against $61.21 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-2% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 8%FY23 3%FY24 -22%FY25 -6%

It earned an average -2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 233% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$2.74
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$7.52M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037524 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-078615 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108593 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037524 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-078615 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108593 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037524 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-078615 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108593 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037524 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-078615 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108593 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008438 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-037524 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-078615 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-108593 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008438 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)