MeritValue

AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC

AVBdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC earns about 6% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.08M1$6.33M2$7.72M3$7.08M3$7.04M3
Net income$1B4$1.14B5$928.8M6$1.08B6$1.06B7
Operating cash flow$1.2B8$1.42B9$1.56B10$1.61B10$1.67B10
Capital expenditure$142.7M11$160.3M12$178.3M13$193.3M13$261.8M13
Free cash flow (derived)$1.06B8$1.26B9$1.38B10$1.41B10$1.41B10
Total debt$8.1B14$8.32B15$7.98B16$8.08B17$10.1B17
Cash & equivalents$420.3M18$613.2M19$397.9M20$108.6M20$187.2M20
Diluted shares139.7M140.0M141.6M142.5M142.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$812.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$73.98
Free cash flow it threw off
$98.67
Debt you’d be carrying
$704.95

10 shares is a claim on $812.97 of net worth that earned you $73.98 and generated $98.67 of cash last year, against $704.95 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 7%FY23 6%FY24 7%FY25 6%

It earned an average 6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 24% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth —

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915912-24-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915912-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915912-26-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915912-24-000004 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915912-25-000005 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915912-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000915912-26-000004 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915912-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915912-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915912-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915912-24-000004 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915912-25-000005 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915912-26-000004 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915912-23-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915912-24-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915912-25-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000915912-26-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915912-24-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915912-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915912-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)