MeritValue

AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC

AVBdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC earns about 6% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $113.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.08M1$6.33M2$7.72M3$7.08M3$7.04M3
Net income$1B4$1.14B5$928.8M6$1.08B6$1.06B7
Operating cash flow$1.2B8$1.42B9$1.56B10$1.61B10$1.67B10
Capital expenditure$142.7M11$160.3M12$178.3M13$193.3M13$261.8M13
Free cash flow (derived)$1.06B8$1.26B9$1.38B10$1.41B10$1.41B10
Total debt$8.1B14$8.32B15$7.98B16$8.08B17$10.1B17
Cash & equivalents$420.3M18$613.2M19$397.9M20$108.6M20$187.2M20
Diluted shares139.7M140.0M141.6M142.5M142.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$812.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$73.98
Free cash flow it threw off
$98.67
Debt you’d be carrying
$704.95

10 shares is a claim on $812.97 of net worth that earned you $73.98 and generated $98.67 of cash last year, against $704.95 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 7%FY23 6%FY24 7%FY25 6%

It earned an average 6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 24% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
REIT — real-estate depreciation is an accounting charge on assets that generally appreciate, so it inflates free cash flow and depresses reported earnings and book value at the same time. Every model here reads one of those, and none is a fair base. FFO/AFFO is the applicable measure — see the FFO capitalisation model, which values REITs from it.
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
REIT — real-estate depreciation is an accounting charge on assets that generally appreciate, so it inflates free cash flow and depresses reported earnings and book value at the same time. Every model here reads one of those, and none is a fair base. FFO/AFFO is the applicable measure — see the FFO capitalisation model, which values REITs from it.
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
REIT — real-estate depreciation is an accounting charge on assets that generally appreciate, so it inflates free cash flow and depresses reported earnings and book value at the same time. Every model here reads one of those, and none is a fair base. FFO/AFFO is the applicable measure — see the FFO capitalisation model, which values REITs from it.
FFO · Capitalized
$113.27
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedFfo$1.57B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
REIT — real-estate depreciation is an accounting charge on assets that generally appreciate, so it inflates free cash flow and depresses reported earnings and book value at the same time. Every model here reads one of those, and none is a fair base. FFO/AFFO is the applicable measure — see the FFO capitalisation model, which values REITs from it.

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915912-24-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915912-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915912-26-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915912-24-000004 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915912-25-000005 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915912-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000915912-26-000004 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915912-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915912-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915912-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915912-24-000004 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915912-25-000005 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915912-26-000004 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915912-23-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915912-24-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915912-25-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000915912-26-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915912-24-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915912-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915912-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)