MeritValue

AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC

AVBdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.08M1$6.33M2$7.72M3$7.08M3$7.04M3
Net income$1B4$1.14B5$928.8M6$1.08B6$1.06B7
Operating cash flow$1.2B8$1.42B9$1.56B10$1.61B10$1.67B10
Capital expenditure$142.7M11$160.3M12$178.3M13$193.3M13$261.8M13
Free cash flow (derived)$1.06B8$1.26B9$1.38B10$1.41B10$1.41B10
Total debt$8.1B14$8.32B15$7.98B16$8.08B17$10.1B17
Cash & equivalents$420.3M18$613.2M19$397.9M20$108.6M20$187.2M20
Diluted shares139.7M140.0M141.6M142.5M142.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
You’d own
0.0000070%
of the whole company
Your share of last year’s profit
$73.98
Your share of its debt
$704.95
Your share of free cash flow
$98.67
iii. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$180.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.5%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.2%
  • fcfBase$1.41B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$136.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.5%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.2%
  • fcfBase$1.41B
Earnings Power Value
$77.95
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.5%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.06B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$116.34
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

iv. The price question — last, on purpose
What does today’s price assume?
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.78%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $136.72

Default growth 8.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915912-24-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915912-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915912-26-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915912-24-000004 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915912-25-000005 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915912-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000915912-26-000004 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915912-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915912-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915912-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915912-24-000004 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915912-25-000005 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915912-26-000004 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915912-23-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915912-24-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915912-25-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000915912-26-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000915912-24-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000915912-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000915912-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)