MeritValue

AeroVironment Inc

AVAVdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AeroVironment Inc earns about -3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 99% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$445.7M1$540.5M2$716.7M3$820.6M3$1.98B3
Net income−$4.19M4−$176.2M5$59.7M6$43.6M6−$265.1M6
Operating cash flow−$9.62M7$11.4M8$15.3M9−$1.32M9−$78.4M9
Capital expenditure$22.3M10$14.9M11$23M12$19.5M12$62.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$31.9M7−$3.47M8−$7.69M9−$20.9M9−$140.9M9
Total debt$377.8M13$268.4M14$55.1M15$60M16$1.48B16
Cash & equivalents$77.2M17$132.9M18$73.3M19$40.9M20$377.3M20
Diluted shares24.7M25.0M27.3M28.2M49.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$896.44
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$54.01
Free cash flow it threw off
−$28.71
Debt you’d be carrying
$300.78

10 shares is a claim on $896.44 of net worth that earned you −$54.01 and generated −$28.71 of cash last year, against $300.78 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-3% avg · 5y
FY22 -1%FY23 -22%FY24 7%FY25 5%FY26 -4%

It earned an average -3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+99% shares · 5y

Share count is up 99% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 291% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001558370-24-009515 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001558370-25-008838 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001104659-26-078906 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001558370-24-009515 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001558370-25-008838 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001104659-26-078906 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001558370-24-009515 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001558370-25-008838 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001104659-26-078906 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001558370-24-009515 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001558370-25-008838 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001104659-26-078906 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001558370-23-011469 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001558370-24-009515 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001558370-25-008838 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-04-30 · accession 0001104659-26-078906 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001558370-23-011469 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001558370-24-009515 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001558370-25-008838 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-04-30 · accession 0001104659-26-078906 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)