Grupo Aval Acciones Y Valores S.A.

AVALdata completeness 75%2 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

Grupo Aval Acciones Y Valores S.A. earns about 14% on equity, and has bought back 53% of its shares over 2 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2017	FY 2018
Revenue	—	—
Net income	$657.6M¹	$896.3M²
Operating cash flow	$1.71B³	$2.69B⁴
Capital expenditure	$158.8M⁵	$168.9M⁶
Free cash flow (derived)	$1.55B³	$2.52B⁴
Total debt	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$6.87B⁷	$8.74B⁷
Diluted shares	15.24B	7.12B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$7.69

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

$1.26

Free cash flow it threw off

$3.54

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $7.69 of net worth that earned you $1.26 and generated $3.54 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

14% avg · 2y

FY17 12%FY18 16%

It earned an average 14% on equity over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

−53% shares · 2y

Share count is down 53% over 2 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

only 2 years of net income (need ≥3)

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

20-F · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001144204-18-022931 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
20-F · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001558370-19-003337 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
20-F · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001144204-18-022931 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
20-F · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001558370-19-003337 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
20-F · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001144204-18-022931 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
20-F · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001558370-19-003337 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
20-F · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001558370-19-003337 (CashAndCashEquivalents)