MeritValue

Grupo Aval Acciones Y Valores S.A.

AVALdata completeness 75%2 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Grupo Aval Acciones Y Valores S.A. earns about 14% on equity, and has bought back 53% of its shares over 2 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2017FY 2018
Revenue——
Net income$657.6M1$896.3M2
Operating cash flow$1.71B3$2.69B4
Capital expenditure$158.8M5$168.9M6
Free cash flow (derived)$1.55B3,5$2.52B4,6
Total debt——
Cash & equivalents$6.87B7$8.74B7
Diluted shares15.24B7.12B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$7.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.26
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.54
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $7.69 of net worth that earned you $1.26 and generated $3.54 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
14% avg · 2y
FY17 12%FY18 16%

It earned an average 14% on equity over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−53% shares · 2y

Share count is down 53% over 2 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.6.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Why: this is a bank. Banks report no capital expenditure line, so free cash flow can't be derived — and for a lender, moving cash is the business itself, so a cash-flow DCF doesn't describe it.
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Why: this is a bank. Banks report no capital expenditure line, so free cash flow can't be derived — and for a lender, moving cash is the business itself, so a cash-flow DCF doesn't describe it.
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
only 2 years of net income (need ≥3)
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

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Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F filed 2018-04-27 · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001144204-18-022931 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  2. 20-F filed 2019-04-26 · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001558370-19-003337 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  3. 20-F filed 2018-04-27 · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001144204-18-022931 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F filed 2019-04-26 · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001558370-19-003337 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 20-F filed 2018-04-27 · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001144204-18-022931 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  6. 20-F filed 2019-04-26 · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001558370-19-003337 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  7. 20-F filed 2019-04-26 · periods ending 2017-12-31, 2018-12-31 · accession 0001558370-19-003337 (CashAndCashEquivalents)