MeritValue

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc.

AVAHdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc. earns about -1% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 125895% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$1.68B1$1.79B2$1.9B3$2.02B4$2.43B4
Net income−$117M5−$662M6−$134.5M7−$10.9M8$225M8
Operating cash flow−$11.4M9−$48.4M10$22.7M11$32.6M12$125.9M12
Capital expenditure$16M13————
Free cash flow (derived)−$27.3M9————
Total debt$2.47B14$2.58B15$2.57B16$2.56B17$2.6B17
Cash & equivalents$30.5M18$19.2M19$43.9M20$84.3M21$193.3M21
Diluted shares170,625185.6M190.0M192.9M215.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$9.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.47
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$120.93

10 shares is a claim on $9.05 of net worth that earned you $10.47 last year, against $120.93 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1% avg · 5y
FY22 -1%FY22 -17%FY23 0%FY24 3%FY26 9%

It earned an average -1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+125895% shares · 5y

Share count is up 125895% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$4.62
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-23-008309 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031321 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000950170-25-038504 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-115851 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-23-008309 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031321 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000950170-25-038504 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-115851 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-23-008309 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031321 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000950170-25-038504 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-115851 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-22-004799 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-23-008309 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031321 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000950170-25-038504 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-115851 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000950170-23-008309 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031321 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000950170-25-038504 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-115851 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)