MeritValue

AVISTA CORP

AVAdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

AVISTA CORP earns about 5% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 16% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $21.66 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.44B1$1.71B2$1.75B3$1.94B3$1.96B3
Net income$147.3M4$155M5$171M6$180M6$193M6
Operating cash flow$267.3M7$124M8$447M9$534M9$469M9
Capital expenditure$439.9M10$452M11$499M12$533M12$570M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$172.6M7−$328M8−$52M9$1M9−$101M9
Total debt$2.43B13$2.76B13$364M14$354M14$388M15
Cash & equivalents$22.2M16$13.4M17$35M18$30M19$19M19
Diluted shares70.1M73.1M76.5M78.8M81.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$334.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.81
Free cash flow it threw off
−$12.46
Debt you’d be carrying
$47.87

10 shares is a claim on $334.23 of net worth that earned you $23.81 and generated −$12.46 of cash last year, against $47.87 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 3%FY23 5%FY24 6%FY25 6%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+16% shares · 5y

Share count is up 16% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 84% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$21.66
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$171M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$42.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017421 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027077 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067872 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017421 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027077 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067872 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017421 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027077 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067872 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017421 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027077 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067872 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003546 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027077 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067872 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003546 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017421 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027077 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067872 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)